U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Holds Hearing Regarding Developments in Ukraine (with Turza Comment)
On Thursday, June 5, 2014, Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) chaired a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on developments in Ukraine. Witnesses at the hearing included Jane Harman (President and CEO of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Steven Pifer (Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Ambassador to Ukraine), James Jeffrey (Visiting Fellow at the Washington Institute and former Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor), Mark Green (President of the International Republican Institute) and Kenneth Wollack (President of the National Democratic Institute).
The witnesses discussed recent developments on the ground and possible strategies for exerting increased pressure on Russia to deter perceived interference in Ukraine. The witnesses also reflected on how a continued increase in pressure on Russia could result in collateral economic consequences, particularly in Europe. The hearing included a significant discussion of how the United States could best support Ukraine, including by increasing its energy independence in the long term.
Turza Comment: To date, sanctions against Russia have been coordinated between the United States and the European Union and there appears to be little appetite in Europe for more. This is attributable in part to the successful May 25, 2014 presidential vote in Ukraine, but also to reports that Russia has begun to withdraw forces from the Ukrainian border. Thus, in the absence of significant renewed aggression from Russia, new sanctions if any should be set, are likely to focus on individuals (including additional Russian oligarchs) rather than on sectors of the Russian economy.
Notably, during the June 5, 2014 hearing, Mark Green of the International Republican Institute highlighted allegations that Russia engaged in a cyberattack against the Ukrainian Election Commission in advance of the May 25, 2014 vote. An unnamed U.S. State Department official reportedly confirmed the allegations. In the weeks ahead, this allegation could draw increased attention in light of President Obama's announcement on May 2, 2014 that any meddling by Russia in Ukraine's presidential election would result in more serious sanctions. Further, the U.S. response to the current accusations against Russia, if they are substantiated (coming only two weeks after the United States indicted five Chinese officials for alleged corporate cyber espionage), may provide a further indication of the seriousness with which the Obama Administration regards international cyberattacks.
Related news: Twelve More Russians Sanctioned under Magnitsky Act (with Turza Comment) (May 20, 2014); Sanctions Update for Week of May 12, 2014 (with Turza Comment) (May 16, 2014); Update on Ukraine and Other Sanctions - Week of May 5 (with Turza Comment) (May 9, 2014); Sanctions Update: Ukraine and Beyond (with Turza Comment) (May 2, 2014).
See also: Cabinet Sanctions Page (some materials are accessible to Cabinet subscribers only).
For more information, please contact Dale Turza, James Treanor or Keith Gerver.