Fed Proposes to Amend Stress Capital Buffer Requirement

Sebastian Souchet Commentary by Sebastian Souchet

The Federal Reserve Board ("Fed") proposed "[to] amend the calculation of the Board's stress capital buffer requirement." 

The Fed explained that the stress test enables the Board "to assess whether [covered financial institutions] have sufficient capital to absorb potential losses and continue lending under a set of hypothetical severely adverse conditions." The Fed said that an institution's supervisory stress test results can vary materially due to "changes in (1) firms’ balance sheet size and risk or projected income and expenses, (2) economic conditions since the previous stress test, (3) the severely adverse scenario used in the supervisory stress test, and (4) the supervisory models used in the supervisory stress test." The Fed issued the rulemaking based on concern that this variation may "impact the provision of banking services," including how it may influence "decision-making regarding investment and expansion, create challenges in long-term capital planning, and impact the supply of credit to households and businesses."  

In the rulemaking, the Fed proposed to: (i) average the results of the supervisory stress test over two years to "reduce volatility in the stress capital buffer requirement' and (ii) to modify and add elements to required data collection reports ("FR Y-14A/Q/M") to "improve the accuracy" of stress capital calculations and to eliminate items "no longer needed to conduct the supervisory stress test." The Fed said that these changes are intended to preserve flexibility and "are not designed to materially affect overall capital requirements." The Fed also proposed to extend the effective date of those requirements from October 1 to January 1, giving firms three additional months to comply. Public comments are due 60 days after the rule is published in the Federal Register.

Fed Governor Michael S. Barr opposed the proposed changes warning they risk "turning stress testing into an ossified exercise" that offers "false comfort." He argued that the proposal invites a "one-way ratchet" that would weaken the financial system's resilience in a downturn as banks can, among other things, challenge capital-raising elements while ignoring underpriced risks and game outcomes by reshaping balance sheets.

Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler supported the proposal's aim to "reduce volatility" and extend the compliance timeframe. However, she expressed concern that equal weighting of two years of data introduces an 18-month lag, reducing sensitivity to current economic and firm-specific risks. She welcomed public comment on whether the most recent year should be "given more weight" to address this drawback.

Commentary

Three thoughts about the proposal:

  1. The FRB is making good on its December 2024 statement to consider public comment on significant changes to "improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements." While the proposal is a step in the right direction, the FRB should consider the extent to which its measures attempting to limit volatility in stress capital buffer levels serve as countercyclical adjustments that are drivers of volatility. The FRB should generally reconsider the stress capital buffer framework and regulatory redundancies with other bank capital requirements. 
  2. As a policy matter, the proposal conceptually reflects one of FRB Governor Michelle Bowman's recommendations as part of her emphasis on a "fundamental rethink" of the FRB's stress testing framework. Notwithstanding that Ms. Bowman has yet to be confirmed as FRB Vice Chair for Supervision, it seems clear that her thought leadership on this policy issue has had a substantive impact on the FRB's policy approach.
  3. On page 5 of the proposal, there appears to be a reference to the expected re-proposal of the Basel III Endgame. Specifically, the proposal states: "The [FRB] is also considering broad modifications to its regulatory capital and capital planning requirements for large firms to ensure they remain cohesive and effective, maintain and resilience of the banking sector, and minimize any unnecessary burden" (emphasis added). Query what the FRB means by "broad modifications" given (i) the aggressive regulatory posture of the Basel III Endgame proposal and (ii) FRB Governor Barr's September 2024 speech indicating that the original proposal would be scaled back.

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