The permissible scope of prediction markets is, from both a legal and a policy standpoint, a fascinating question.  

Recently, the focus has been on prediction markets concerning the elections. Elections have material economic consequences, which would justify having prediction markets on the outcome. Further, the prediction markets seemed to produce good results, at least better than some of the polls.  

Beyond predictions about elections, many of the…

The Superbowl contract puts front and center a very important question: is there any inherent difference between an event contract and a bet on a sporting event, or on anything else? Should futures exchanges be permitted to offer contracts on any event, or only events that have economic significance (outside of the contract itself)?  

Below is a list of some of the contracts that are presently available to trade on Kalshi:

There is no more thoughtful person in the United States to be in charge of this effort than Commissioner Peirce. After many years of being limited to writing carefully reasoned (and witty) dissents on ill-considered rules adopted by 3-2 votes under Chair Gensler, it is fitting that Ms. Peirce becomes the leader of the most significant change to financial regulation since the adoption of Dodd-Frank. Under Commissioner Peirce's leadership, a new crypto regulatory framework is certain to be…

In the long run, the creation of a sovereign wealth fund could become a source of corruption and an instrument for government favoritism of businesses in which it has invested. The Trump Administration and DOGE are attempting to put on display—and root out—past instances of government failure. While the creation of a sovereign wealth fund might be successful in the short term, it's fair to consider the longer-term track record of the US Government in discretionary expenditures.